2014 Ontario general election 2014 Canadian provincial general election
2014 Ontario general election Opinion polls Turnout 51.3% ( 3.1pp )[ 1]
First party
Second party
Third party
Leader
Kathleen Wynne
Tim Hudak
Andrea Horwath
Party
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Leader since
January 26, 2013
June 27, 2009
March 7, 2009
Leader's seat
Don Valley West
Niagara West—Glanbrook
Hamilton Centre
Last election
53 seats, 37.65%
37 seats, 35.45%
17 seats, 22.74%
Seats before
48
37
21
Seats won
58
28
21
Seat change
10
9
Popular vote
1,863,974
1,505,436
1,144,822
Percentage
38.67%
31.23%
23.75%
Swing
1.02pp
4.22pp
1.01pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
The 2014 Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario . The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature , allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne , to continue as premier , moving from a minority to majority government . This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election .[ 2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.[ 3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.
The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley ,[ 4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly , would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.[ 5]
With the election, Wynne became the first woman and the first openly gay person to lead a party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.[ 6] [ 7]
Timeline (2011–2014)
Seat changes
Other developments
Date
Event
October 6, 2011
Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario .
November 22, 2011
The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne .[ 17]
March 28, 2012
Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election.
April 10, 2012
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak 's outright rejection of it.[ 18]
June 15, 2012
Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed.[ 19]
June 20, 2012
The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election.[ 20]
October 15, 2012
Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[ 21]
January 26, 2013
Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party .[ 22]
February 11, 2013
Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in.[ 23]
February 20, 2013
Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne.
May 1, 2014
Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberals' budget, proposed earlier that day.
May 2, 2014
NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election.[ 5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014.[ 24]
June 12, 2014
The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.[ 25] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.[ 26]
June 14, 2014
A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill .[ 27]
June 24, 2014
A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives.[ 28]
Incumbents not running for reelection
Results
↓
58
28
21
Liberal
PC
NDP
Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party
Party leader
Candidates
Seats
Popular vote[ 37] [ 38]
2011
Dissol.
2014
Change
#
%
Change
Liberal
Kathleen Wynne
107
53
48
58
5
1,863,974
38.67%
1.02%
Progressive Conservative
Tim Hudak
107
37
37
28
9
1,505,436
31.23%
4.22%
New Democratic
Andrea Horwath
107
17
21
21
4
1,144,822
23.75%
1.01%
Green
Mike Schreiner
107
–
–
–
–
235,911
4.89%
1.97%
Libertarian
Allen Small
74
–
–
–
–
37,696
0.78%
0.33%
Freedom
Paul McKeever
42
–
–
–
–
12,381
0.26%
0.05%
Family Coalition
Eric Ames (interim)
6
–
–
–
–
4,288
0.09%
0.13%
None of the Above
Greg Vezina
8
–
–
–
–
4,247
0.09%
–
Independent
14
–
–
–
–
3,854
0.08%
–
Communist
Elizabeth Rowley
11
–
–
–
–
2,290
0.05%
0.02%
Canadians' Choice
Bahman Yazdanfar
4
–
–
–
–
1,293
0.03%
0.03%
Vegan Environmental
Paul Figueiras
5
–
–
–
–
907
0.02%
0.01%
People's Political Party
Kevin Clarke
5
–
–
–
–
894
0.02%
0.01%
Northern Ontario Heritage
Edward Deibel
3
–
–
–
–
892
0.02%
–
Special Needs
Danish Ahmed
3
–
–
–
–
709
0.01%
0.01%
Confederation of Regions
vacant
2
–
–
–
–
551
0.01%
–
Trillium
Bob Yaciuk
2
–
–
–
–
397
0.01%
–
Equal Parenting
Dennis Valenta
2
–
–
–
–
366
0.01%
–
Socialist
Michael Laxer
2
–
–
–
–
361
0.01%
–
Moderate
Yuri Duboisky
2
–
–
–
–
335
0.01%
–
Pauper
John Turmel
3
–
–
–
–
194
–
–
Declined Vote[ 39]
31,399
0.64%
+0.59%
Vacant
1
Total
616
107
107
107
4,820,547
Popular vote
Liberal
38.67%
PC
31.23%
New Democratic
23.75%
Green
4.89%
Others
1.46%
Seats summary
Liberal
54.21%
PC
26.17%
New Democratic
19.63%
Synopsis of results
Results by riding - 2014 Ontario general election[ a 1]
Riding
2011
Winning party
Turnout[ a 2]
Votes[ a 3]
Party
Votes
Share
Margin #
Margin %
Lib
PC
NDP
Green
Ind
Other
Total
Ajax—Pickering
Lib
Lib
26,257
51.06%
11,258
21.89%
50.18%
26,257
14,999
8,274
1,589
–
301
51,420
Algoma—Manitoulin
NDP
NDP
14,171
53.41%
7,667
28.90%
49.38%
6,504
4,589
14,171
828
–
441
26,533
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Lib
Lib
24,042
44.56%
5,790
10.73%
59.02%
24,042
18,252
8,415
2,639
–
611
53,959
Barrie
PC
Lib
19,916
40.69%
2,249
4.60%
49.18%
19,916
17,667
7,975
3,018
–
366
48,942
Beaches—East York
NDP
Lib
17,218
40.09%
481
1.12%
56.14%
17,218
5,982
16,737
2,329
–
682
42,948
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
NDP
NDP
23,519
44.32%
5,646
10.64%
45.03%
17,873
9,403
23,519
2,277
–
–
53,072
Brampton—Springdale
Lib
Lib
16,927
40.06%
3,414
8.08%
45.34%
16,927
10,117
13,513
1,311
–
382
42,250
Brampton West
Lib
Lib
24,832
45.23%
11,469
20.89%
42.50%
24,832
13,363
12,985
1,504
–
2,418
54,902
Brant
Lib
Lib
19,396
37.63%
3,949
7.66%
52.51%
19,396
15,447
13,992
2,095
–
614
51,544
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
PC
PC
20,359
47.55%
8,773
20.49%
53.93%
11,586
20,359
6,787
3,696
–
388
42,816
Burlington
PC
Lib
23,573
43.41%
3,487
6.42%
57.73%
23,573
20,086
7,792
2,250
–
608
54,309
Cambridge
PC
Lib
18,763
38.93%
3,069
6.37%
48.95%
18,763
15,694
10,413
2,726
–
605
48,201
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
PC
PC
30,590
47.49%
10,118
15.71%
56.08%
20,472
30,590
8,744
4,614
–
–
64,420
Chatham-Kent—Essex
PC
PC
14,183
37.83%
2,519
6.72%
51.33%
9,158
14,183
11,664
1,971
–
514
37,490
Davenport
NDP
Lib
16,272
45.61%
1,950
5.47%
49.56%
16,272
2,665
14,322
1,784
–
631
35,674
Don Valley East
Lib
Lib
19,248
55.71%
9,991
28.92%
47.85%
19,248
9,257
4,500
1,256
–
287
34,548
Don Valley West
Lib
Lib
26,215
57.01%
12,133
26.39%
53.90%
26,215
14,082
3,569
1,286
138
690
45,980
Dufferin—Caledon
PC
PC
18,017
39.86%
4,156
9.19%
51.48%
13,861
18,017
5,269
7,518
–
538
45,203
Durham
PC
Lib
19,816
36.45%
1,176
2.16%
55.71%
19,816
18,640
13,094
2,382
–
434
54,366
Eglinton—Lawrence
Lib
Lib
22,855
54.80%
8.776
21.04%
53.99%
22,855
14,079
3,060
1,305
143
264
41,706
Elgin—Middlesex—London
PC
PC
20,946
46.36%
8,912
19.72%
53.98%
9,183
20,946
12,034
2,236
–
784
45,183
Essex
NDP
NDP
28,118
60.34%
17,949
38.52%
50.20%
6,628
10,169
28,118
1,685
–
–
46,600
Etobicoke Centre
Lib
Lib
23,848
50.28%
8,328
17.56%
56.47%
23,848
15,520
5,758
1,254
–
1,052
47,432
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lib
Lib
24,311
47.49%
6,724
13.13%
53.73%
24,311
17,587
6,362
2,064
–
869
51,193
Etobicoke North
Lib
Lib
12,168
44.90%
5,065
18.69%
42.71%
12,168
6,163
7,103
677
–
987
27,098
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Lib
Lib
23,565
49.74%
8,136
17.17%
53.36%
23,565
15,429
5,902
1,528
296
655
47,375
Guelph
Lib
Lib
22,014
41.52%
10,966
20.68%
55.47%
22,014
11,048
9,385
10,230
–
348
53,025
Haldimand—Norfolk
PC
PC
22,066
52.22%
12,280
29.06%
53.97%
8,331
22,066
9,786
2,071
–
–
42,254
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
PC
PC
21,641
40.96%
3,129
5.92%
55.98%
18,512
21,641
10,431
2,255
–
–
52,839
Halton
PC
Lib
33,724
44.79%
5,787
7.69%
50.90%
33,724
27,937
9,758
2,618
–
1,262
75,299
Hamilton Centre
NDP
NDP
18,697
52.01%
10,247
28.50%
44.76%
8,450
5,173
18,697
3,067
–
563
35,950
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
NDP
NDP
19,958
46.81%
7,525
17.65%
48.84%
12,433
7,574
19,958
1,742
–
930
42,637
Hamilton Mountain
NDP
NDP
23,006
46.90%
8,498
17.32%
52.85%
14,508
8,795
23,006
2,047
–
699
49,055
Huron—Bruce
PC
PC
18,512
39.01%
3,865
8.14%
59.96%
14,647
18,512
10,843
1,651
–
1,804
47,457
Kenora—Rainy River
NDP
NDP
12,889
55.66%
6,984
30.16%
46.72%
3,652
5,905
12,889
711
–
–
23,157
Kingston and the Islands
Lib
Lib
20,838
41.59%
6,027
12.03%
52.14%
20,838
10,652
14,811
3,566
–
242
50,109
Kitchener Centre
Lib
Lib
18,472
43.14%
6,922
16.17%
52.28%
18,472
11,550
9,765
2,472
–
557
42,816
Kitchener—Conestoga
PC
PC
17,083
36.36%
1,419
3.02%
50.33%
15,664
17,083
9,958
3,277
–
1,001
46,983
Kitchener—Waterloo
PC
NDP
20,536
37.43%
4,002
7.29%
54.95%
16,534
14,450
20,536
2,859
–
481
54,860
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
PC
PC
20,710
45.17%
8,550
18.65%
56.93%
9,298
20,710
12,160
2,104
–
1,575
45,847
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
PC
PC
21,966
43.52%
6,929
13.73%
53.95%
15,037
21,966
10,184
3,283
–
–
50,470
Leeds—Grenville
PC
PC
23,253
56.07%
14,754
35.58%
52.86%
8,499
23,253
7,219
2,030
–
471
41,472
London—Fanshawe
NDP
NDP
17,903
50.42%
9,707
27.34%
46.42%
7,066
8,196
17,903
1,378
112
853
35,508
London North Centre
Lib
Lib
16,379
35.98%
2,526
5.55%
50.21%
16,379
12,016
13,853
2,445
–
824
45,517
London West
Lib
NDP
22,243
40.36%
5,948
10.79%
56.03%
13,070
16,295
22,243
2,310
–
1,188
55,106
Markham—Unionville
Lib
Lib
21,517
51.33%
7,276
17.36%
44.54%
21,517
14,241
4,205
1,509
–
444
41,916
Mississauga—Brampton South
Lib
Lib
19,923
48.21%
8,672
20.99%
41.48%
19,923
11,251
6,906
1,302
351
1,590
41,323
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Lib
Lib
20,934
52.33%
10,455
26.14%
43.89%
20,934
10,479
6,158
1,408
–
1,022
40,001
Mississauga—Erindale
Lib
Lib
25,356
48.98%
9,882
19.09%
46.90%
25,356
15,474
7,730
1,216
–
1,988
51,764
Mississauga South
Lib
Lib
22,192
50.76%
7,678
17.56%
53.55%
22,192
14,514
4,649
1,418
–
946
43,719
Mississauga—Streetsville
Lib
Lib
22,587
52.57%
10,527
24.50%
46.76%
22,587
12,060
5,885
1,566
–
866
42,964
Nepean—Carleton
PC
PC
30,901
46.77%
8,927
13.51%
55.39%
21,974
30,901
8,628
3,630
–
940
66,073
Newmarket—Aurora
PC
Lib
22,997
43.94%
3,412
6.52%
53.40%
22,997
19,585
6,023
2,144
–
1,584
52,333
Niagara Falls
Lib
NDP
24,131
47.39%
7,429
14.59%
51.21%
7,329
16,702
24,131
1,724
–
1,037
50,923
Niagara West—Glanbrook
PC
PC
23,378
41.82%
7,535
13.48%
58.59%
15,843
23,378
12,423
3,004
–
1,254
55,902
Nickel Belt
NDP
NDP
20,104
62.62%
13,073
40.72%
50.00%
7,031
3,827
20,104
1,145
–
–
32,107
Nipissing
PC
PC
13,085
41.81%
4,703
15.03%
52.49%
8,382
13,085
8,057
1,188
208
377
31,297
Northumberland—Quinte West
PC
Lib
23,419
42.97%
3,836
7.04%
55.81%
23,419
19,583
9,211
2,283
–
–
54,496
Oak Ridges—Markham
Lib
Lib
36,782
45.55%
6,526
8.08%
46.21%
36,782
30,256
9,355
2,791
–
1,571
80,755
Oakville
Lib
Lib
24,717
49.40%
5,796
11.58%
56.13%
24,717
18,921
3,994
1,887
–
518
50,037
Oshawa
PC
NDP
22,232
46.70%
7,692
16.16%
50.19%
9,051
14,540
22,232
1,785
–
–
47,608
Ottawa Centre
Lib
Lib
27,689
52.02%
16,795
31.55%
56.85%
27,689
9,678
10,894
4,163
–
808
53,232
Ottawa—Orléans
Lib
Lib
29,911
53.50%
11,386
20.37%
59.33%
29,911
18,525
5,022
2,036
–
411
55,905
Ottawa South
Lib
Lib
23,708
49.96%
8,473
17.86%
53.71%
23,708
15,235
5,817
2,034
–
656
47,450
Ottawa—Vanier
Lib
Lib
21,810
55.55%
13,060
33.26%
48.86%
21,810
8,750
5,228
3,144
–
329
39,261
Ottawa West—Nepean
Lib
Lib
21,035
44.84%
5,140
10.96%
55.95%
21,035
15,895
6,760
2,899
–
318
46,907
Oxford
PC
PC
18,958
46.24%
8,385
20.45%
51.92%
8,736
18,958
10,573
1,985
–
749
41,001
Parkdale—High Park
NDP
NDP
18,385
40.77%
544
1.21%
56.88%
17,841
5,787
18,385
2,479
–
601
45,093
Parry Sound—Muskoka
PC
PC
15,761
40.73%
5,603
14.48%
52.11%
10,158
15,761
4,999
7,484
–
296
38,698
Perth—Wellington
PC
PC
15,992
38.96%
2,407
5.86%
55.66%
13,585
15,992
7,764
2,005
343
1,359
41,048
Peterborough
Lib
Lib
24,709
46.33%
8,802
16.50%
57.30%
24,709
15,907
9,728
2,287
395
305
53,331
Pickering—Scarborough East
Lib
Lib
23,206
51.96%
10,568
23.66%
54.77%
23,206
12,638
6,600
1,564
–
654
44,662
Prince Edward—Hastings
PC
PC
19,281
41.72%
4,176
9.04%
51.61%
15,105
19,281
8,829
2,448
–
555
46,218
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
PC
PC
25,241
61.07%
17,344
41.96%
54.32%
7,897
25,241
5,978
1,337
392
489
41,334
Richmond Hill
Lib
Lib
20,455
47.78%
4,813
11.24%
45.69%
20,455
15,642
4,697
1,344
–
670
42,808
St. Catharines
Lib
Lib
19,070
41.00%
5,256
11.30%
54.80%
19,070
13,814
11,350
1,792
–
488
46,514
St. Paul's
Lib
Lib
30,027
59.74%
17,990
35.79%
57.11%
30,027
12,037
5,056
2,569
–
572
50,261
Sarnia—Lambton
PC
PC
18,722
41.01%
2,395
5.25%
57.35%
8,152
18,722
16,327
2,109
–
340
45,650
Sault Ste. Marie
Lib
Lib
17,490
58.53%
9,880
33.06%
50.77%
17,490
3,704
7,610
965
–
115
29,884
Scarborough—Agincourt
Lib
Lib
17,332
49.84%
5,291
15.22%
46.04%
17,332
12,041
4,105
907
–
387
34,772
Scarborough Centre
Lib
Lib
19,390
55.05%
11,791
33.48%
48.09%
19,390
7,599
7,145
1,086
–
–
35,220
Scarborough—Guildwood
Lib
Lib
17,318
49.89%
7,597
21.89%
49.24%
17,318
9,721
5,894
1,034
–
744
34,711
Scarborough—Rouge River
Lib
Lib
16,095
38.71%
3,076
7.40%
47.48%
16,095
11,500
13,019
571
–
398
41,583
Scarborough Southwest
Lib
Lib
18,420
50.23%
9,746
26.58%
49.91%
18,420
7,573
8,674
1,493
185
328
36,673
Simcoe—Grey
PC
PC
25,988
47.12%
8,789
15.94%
52.00%
17,199
25,988
7,793
4,172
–
–
55,152
Simcoe North
PC
PC
22,179
43.96%
5,766
11.43%
53.33%
16,413
22,179
7,846
4,013
–
–
50,451
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
PC
PC
20,624
51.72%
11,374
28.52%
52.02%
9,250
20,624
8,336
1,067
–
602
39,879
Sudbury
Lib
NDP
14,274
42.24%
978
2.89%
51.92%
13,296
4,663
14,274
1,212
105
243
33,793
Thornhill
PC
PC
21,886
43.99%
106
0.21%
47.83%
21,780
21,886
4,052
1,229
–
804
49,751
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Lib
Lib
15,176
52.98%
7,124
24.87%
49.02%
15,176
3,779
8,052
964
–
676
28,647
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Lib
Lib
15,519
55.97%
7,350
26.51%
50.41%
15,519
1,991
8,169
997
–
1,049
27,725
Timiskaming—Cochrane
NDP
NDP
14,661
55.48%
8,527
32.27%
50.68%
6,134
4,527
14,661
489
–
615
26,426
Timmins—James Bay
NDP
NDP
11,756
51.18%
6,229
27.12%
45.15%
5,527
5,226
11,756
403
–
60
22,972
Toronto Centre
Lib
Lib
29,935
58.47%
20,437
39.92%
50.86%
29,935
9,498
8,140
2,265
–
1,357
51,195
Toronto—Danforth
NDP
NDP
19,190
44.61%
3,207
7.46%
55.30%
15,983
4,304
19,190
2,351
–
1,189
43,017
Trinity—Spadina
NDP
Lib
26,613
46.34%
9,171
15.97%
49.33%
26,613
8,035
17,442
4,033
–
1,311
57,434
Vaughan
Lib
Lib
33,877
56.21%
16,898
28.04%
44.68%
33,877
16,979
6,942
1,350
–
1,121
60,269
Welland
NDP
NDP
21,326
46.71%
8,393
18.38%
53.20%
9,060
12,933
21,326
1,874
–
460
45,653
Wellington—Halton Hills
PC
PC
22,450
46.61%
8,330
17.29%
55.61%
14,120
22,450
6,804
3,550
–
1,241
48,165
Whitby—Oshawa
PC
PC
24,027
40.65%
5,410
9.15%
54.35%
18,617
24,027
13,621
2,523
–
322
59,110
Willowdale
Lib
Lib
24,300
52.58%
8,832
19.11%
46.88%
24,300
15,468
4,693
1,758
–
–
46,219
Windsor—Tecumseh
Lib
NDP
22,818
62.16%
17,219
46.91%
42.77%
5,599
2,118
22,818
5,493
–
682
36,710
Windsor West
Lib
NDP
15,043
41.41%
1,042
2.87%
42.71%
14,001
5,225
15,043
1,171
891
–
36,331
York Centre
Lib
Lib
16,935
47.89%
5,810
16.43%
46.74%
16,935
11,125
5,645
1,163
–
493
35,361
York—Simcoe
PC
PC
19,025
40.40%
2,749
5.84%
47.53%
16,276
19,025
8,420
2,946
–
419
47,086
York South—Weston
Lib
Lib
15,669
47.85%
3,469
10.59%
46.13%
15,669
3,687
12,200
797
146
249
32,748
York West
Lib
Lib
11,907
46.71%
1,910
7.49%
42.24%
11,907
2,794
9,997
418
111
267
25,494
= open seat
= turnout is above provincial average
= incumbent re-elected
= incumbency arose from byelection gain
^ "2014 General Election" . elections.on.ca . Elections Ontario . Retrieved June 18, 2023 .
^ including spoilt ballots
^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
Maps
Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding
Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
Support for Green Party candidates by riding
Support for Libertarian Party candidates by riding
Summary analysis
Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014).
Retention swing analysis between parties for the 2014 Ontario general election, compared to the results from the previous 2011 election.
Gallagher index for the results of the Ontario general election, 2014. There is significant distortion noted in the Liberal results.
Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014.
Popular vote
party
year
votes
change
Liberal
2011
37.65%
+1.02pp
2014
38.67%
Conservative
2011
35.45%
-4.22pp
2014
31.23%
NDP
2011
22.74%
+1.01pp
2014
23.75%
Green
2011
2.92%
+1.97pp
2014
4.89%
Libertarian
2011
0.45%
+0.33pp
2014
0.78%
Others
2011
0.79%
-0.11pp
2014
0.68%
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2011-2014
Party
2011
Gain from (loss to)
2014
Lib
PC
NDP
Liberal
53
7
3
(5)
58
Conservative
37
(7)
(2)
28
New Democratic
17
5
(3)
2
21
Total
107
5
(10)
9
3
(7)
107
Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:
PC to Liberal: 2.6%
PC to NDP: 2.6%
Liberal to NDP: insignificant
Regional analysis
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2014)
Party
Toronto
905 Belt
Ham/Niagara
Central
East
Midwest
Southwest
North
Total
Liberal
20
14
4
5
7
4
1
3
58
Conservative
2
1
6
7
6
4
2
28
New Democratic
2
2
5
1
5
6
21
Total
22
18
10
11
14
11
10
11
107
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - change in seats by region (2011-2014)
Party
Toronto
905 Belt
Ham/Niagara
Central
East
Midwest
Southwest
North
Total
Liberal
3
1
4
1
(3)
(1)
5
Conservative
(1)
(2)
(4)
(2)
(9)
New Democratic
(3)
1
1
1
3
1
4
Principal races
Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
Seats changing hands
There were 17 seats that changed allegiance from the 2011 election.
PC to Liberal
PC to NDP
NDP to Liberal
Liberal to NDP
Resulting composition of the 41st Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Source
Party
Lib
PC
NDP
Total
Seats retained
Incumbents returned
42
28
14
84
Open seats held
5
5
Byelection loss reversed
1
1
Seats changing hands
Incumbents defeated
8
2
10
Open seats gained
2
1
3
Byelection gains held
4
4
Total
58
28
21
107
Marginal seats
The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:
Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014)[ 40]
Constituency
Rank of parties
Margins
Result
1st
2nd
3rd
1st vs 2nd
1st vs 3rd
Barrie
40.7%
36.1%
16.3%
4.6%
24.4%
Lib gain
Beaches— East York
40.1%
39.0%
13.9%
1.1%
26.2%
Lib gain
Durham
36.5%
34.3%
24.1%
2.2%
12.4%
Lib gain
Kitchener— Conestoga
36.4%
33.3%
21.2%
3.1%
15.2%
PC hold
Parkdale— High Park
40.8%
40.0%
12.8%
0.8%
28.0%
NDP hold
Sudbury
42.2%
39.4%
13.8%
2.8%
28.4%
NDP gain
Thornhill
44.0%
43.8%
8.1%
0.2%
35.9%
PC hold
Windsor West
41.4%
38.5%
14.4%
2.9%
27.0%
NDP gain
Opinion polls
Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,[ 41] [ 42] [ 43] [ 44] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.[ 45]
General opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results.
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Link
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Libertarian
Other
Type of poll
Sample size
Margin of Error
Election 2014
June 12, 2014
HTML
38.65
31.25
23.75
4.84
1.51
Ballot
4,851,333
Forum Research
June 11, 2014
PDF
41
35
20
3
1
IVR
1,054
±3%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 11, 2014
PDF
37.3
31.3
19.2
8.2
3.9
IVR
1,311
±2.7%
19 20
Abacus Data [2]
June 11, 2014
PDF
35
32
26
6
1
Online
1,882
±2.3%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
June 11, 2014
HTML
33
31
30
5
Online
1,991
±2.4%
EKOS [2]
June 10, 2014
PDF
36.6
30.2
21.5
6.6
5.0
IVR
1,332
±2.7%
19 20
Angus Reid [2]
June 10, 2014
PDF
36
32
26
5
1
Online
1,866
±2.3%
19 20
Forum Research
June 9, 2014
PDF
42
35
19
3
1
IVR
739
±4%
19 20
Léger Marketing
June 9, 2014
PDF
37
37
20
5
1
Online
1,050
±3.2%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 9, 2014
PDF
34.7
34.5
19.8
6.7
4.3
IVR
1,417
±2.6%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 8, 2014
PDF
35.9
35.9
17.6
7.7
2.8
IVR
1,331
±2.7%
19 20
Oraclepoll Research
June 8, 2014
PDF
35
36
24
5
Telephone
1,000
±3.1%
19 20
Abacus Data [2]
June 7, 2014
PDF
34
31
28
5
1
Online
1,000
±3.1%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 6, 2014
PDF
34.2
35.5
20.5
7.4
2.4
IVR
1,767
±2.3%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
June 6, 2014
HTML
35
35
26
4
Online
2,140
±2.4%
Forum Research
June 5, 2014
PDF
39
37
17
6
1
IVR
1,022
±3%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 5, 2014
PDF
33.9
34.9
20.5
8.4
2.3
IVR
1,690
±2.4%
19 20
EKOS [2]
June 4, 2014
PDF
35.7
30.9
19.8
9.6
4.0
IVR
1,303
±2.7%
19 20
EKOS
June 3, 2014
PDF
36.4
31.0
19.3
8.4
4.9
IVR
997
±3.1%
19 20
EKOS
June 2, 2014
PDF
38.8
30.5
17.8
8.4
4.5
IVR
934
±3.2%
19 20
EKOS
June 1, 2014
PDF
38.5
33.7
16.9
7.8
3.0
IVR
927
±3.2%
19 20
Abacus Data [2]
May 31, 2014
PDF
37
30
24
7
2
Online
1,000
±3.1%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
May 29, 2014
HTML
34
36
23
7
Online
868
±3.8%
Forum Research
May 27, 2014
PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine
36
36
20
7
1
IVR
882
±3%
19 20
Oraclepoll Research
May 27, 2014
PDF
32
36
25
7
Telephone
1,000
±3.1%
19 20
Nanos Research
May 26, 2014
PDF
37.7
31.2
23.7
5.3
Telephone
500
±4.4%
19 20
Abacus Data [2]
May 24, 2014
PDF
34
32
25
6
2
Online
1,000
±3.1%
19 20
EKOS
May 23, 2014
PDF
35.8
30.0
20.4
11.9
1.9
IVR
1,215
±2.8%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
May 21, 2014
HTML
31
35
28
6
Online
800
±3.9%
Forum Research
May 20, 2014
PDF
41
34
20
4
1
IVR
1,136
±3%
19 20
Abacus Data [2]
May 16, 2014
PDF
33
33
26
6
2
Online
2,000
±2.2%
19 20
EKOS
May 15, 2014
PDF
37.1
30.3
20.9
7.3
4.5
IVR
1,111
±2.9%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
May 14, 2014
HTML
30
39
24
7
Online
801
±3.9%
Forum Research
May 12, 2014
PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine
38
35
21
5
1
IVR
996
±3%
19 20
Ipsos Reid [2]
May 9, 2014
HTML
31
37
28
4
Online
821
±3.9%
Innovative Research
May 6, 2014
PDF
38.8
32.8
19.9
6.5
2.0
Online
1,000
N/A [1]
Innovative Research
May 6, 2014
PDF
38.7
32.8
23.7
4.3
0.5
Telephone
500
±4.4%
19 20
Oraclepoll Research
May 5, 2014
PDF [permanent dead link ]
HTML
31
42
25
3
Telephone
1,000
±3.2%
19 20
Forum Research
May 3, 2014
PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine
33
38
22
6
1
IVR
1,845
±2%
19 20
EKOS
May 1, 2014
PDF
34.7
31.6
22.2
9.4
2.0
IVR
1,576
±2.5%
19 20
Election 2011
October 6, 2011
PDF
37.65
35.45
22.74
2.92
1.24
Ballot
4,316,382
1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey , "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:
Likely voters
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Link
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Libertarian
Other
EKOS
June 11, 2014
PDF
42.2
35.9
16.9
2.9
2.1
Abacus Data
June 11, 2014
PDF
36
36
23
5
1
Ipsos Reid
June 11, 2014
HTML
30
36
30
4
EKOS
June 10, 2014
PDF
41.1
33.2
17.1
5.6
2.9
Angus Reid
June 10, 2014
PDF
34
36
24
5
1
EKOS
June 9, 2014
PDF
38.1
36.3
16.9
5.7
3.1
EKOS
June 8, 2014
PDF
42.2
35.4
13.9
6.4
2.0
Abacus Data
June 7, 2014
PDF
34
34
26
5
1
EKOS
June 6, 2014
PDF
40.7
35.7
16.3
5.6
1.8
Ipsos Reid
June 6, 2014
HTML
32
40
24
3
EKOS
June 5, 2014
PDF
39.5
35.6
16.7
6.6
2
EKOS
June 4, 2014
PDF
41.4
32.0
17.8
6.2
3
Abacus Data
May 31, 2014
PDF
37
35
22
5
2
Ipsos Reid
May 29, 2014
HTML
29
41
25
4
Abacus Data
May 24, 2014
PDF
36
33
24
6
1
Ipsos Reid
May 21, 2014
HTML
30
41
26
3
Abacus Data
May 16, 2014
PDF
33
36
25
5
1
Ipsos Reid
May 14, 2014
HTML
31
43
22
4
Ipsos Reid
May 9, 2014
HTML
28
42
27
2
Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.
Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014)
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Link
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Type of poll
Sample size
Ipsos Reid
April 17, 2014
HTML
32
37
27
5
Online
813
Innovative Research
April 14, 2014
PDF
39
30
23
7
Online
800
Nanos Research
April 11, 2014
PDF
36.3
36.0
21.6
5.7
Telephone
503
Forum Research
April 7, 2014
PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine
31
38
23
7
IVR
928
Oraclepoll Research
April 7, 2014
PDF
35
34
24
8
Telephone
1,000
EKOS
April 3, 2014
PDF
32.3
27.4
29.0
8.3
IVR
1,234
Innovative Research
March 26, 2014
PDF
38
33
25
4
Online
1,017
Forum Research
March 24, 2014
PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine
35
32
25
7
IVR
908
Nanos Research
March 3, 2014
PDF
35.7
32.9
24.5
6.8
Telephone
500
Forum Research
February 25, 2014
HTML
32
35
26
6
IVR
1,014
Ipsos Reid
February 7, 2014
HTML
31
34
31
4
Online
828
Forum Research
January 25, 2014
HTML
33
36
26
4
IVR
1,222
Nanos Research
January 20, 2014
PDF
35.5
28.1
27.4
8.1
Telephone
500
Forum Research
December 18, 2013
HTML
31
38
24
5
IVR
1,044
Forum Research
November 26, 2013
PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine
32
38
23
6
IVR
1,126
Ipsos Reid
November 6, 2013
HTML
34
31
31
5
Online
832
Forum Research
October 25, 2013
HTML
31
34
27
7
IVR
1,049
Forum Research
October 1, 2013
HTML
33
36
23
7
IVR
1,093
Nanos Research
September 29, 2013
PDF
36.0
31.3
26.1
6.3
Telephone
500
Campaign Research
September 19, 2013
PDF
36
32
22
8
IVR
1,414
Abacus Data
September 4, 2013
PDF
30
33
30
5
Online
1,000
Forum Research
August 28, 2013
PDF
32
35
26
6
IVR
1,063
Innovative Research
August 27, 2013
HTML
37
30
22
10
Telephone
600
Forum Research
July 22, 2013
PDF
31
36
27
5
IVR
914
Nanos Research
July 14, 2013
PDF
37.2
30.6
27.0
4.9
Telephone
500
EKOS
July 9, 2013
PDF
31.9
28.9
25.9
9.4
IVR
830
Forum Research
June 26, 2013
PDF
33
35
24
8
IVR
1,037
Forum Research
May 28, 2013
PDF
38
34
21
6
IVR
918
EKOS
May 26, 2013
HTML
34.9
29.6
22.6
9.4
IVR
1,152
Ipsos Reid
May 21, 2013
HTML
34
34
26
5
Online
1,772
Abacus Data
May 9, 2013
PDF
34
34
25
6
Online
1,185
Innovative Research
May 9, 2013
PDF
37
30
25
6
Telephone
610
Forum Research
May 3, 2013
PDF
35
35
25
4
IVR
869
Forum Research
April 26, 2013
PDF
36
36
24
4
IVR
1,133
Ipsos Reid
April 17, 2013
HTML
28
37
29
6
Online
1,360
EKOS
April 10, 2013
PDF
30.8
31.7
25.5
9.7
IVR
1,084
Forum Research
March 27, 2013
PDF
33
35
26
5
IVR
1,156
Forum Research
March 1, 2013
PDF
32
32
29
5
IVR
2,773
Forum Research
February 20, 2013
PDF
29
36
28
5
IVR
1,053
Nanos Research
February 13, 2013
PDF
33.6
33.7
26.5
5.4
Telephone
500
EKOS
February 10, 2013
PDF
32.5
28.5
25.6
10.1
IVR
1,797
Abacus Data
February 6, 2013
PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine
30
33
31
5
Online
1,020
Innovative Research
January 29, 2013
PDF
31
30
27
9
Telephone
446
Forum Research
January 24, 2013
PDF
27
32
35
5
IVR
1,108
Forum Research
December 17, 2012
PDF
27
33
31
8
IVR
990
Abacus Data
December 8, 2012
PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine
28
35
31
5
Online
821
Forum Research
November 28, 2012
PDF
29
35
27
8
IVR
1,127
Oraclepoll Research
November 24, 2012
PDF
26
37
31
6
Telephone
Forum Research
October 31, 2012
PDF
22
37
32
7
IVR
1,102
Innovative Research
October 22, 2012
PDF
28
32
31
9
Telephone
600
Angus Reid
October 17, 2012
PDF
26
36
32
5
Online
802
Forum Research
September 25, 2012
PDF
20
37
35
7
IVR
851
Nanos Research
August 16, 2012
PDF
34.0
34.7
22.1
6.8
Telephone
1,000
Forum Research
August 15, 2012
PDF
27
38
28
6
IVR
1,021
Forum Research
June 15, 2012
PDF
26
38
30
5
IVR
1,098
Forum Research
June 4, 2012
PDF
28
36
30
4
IVR
1,038
Environics
May 25, 2012
PDF
25
37
28
10
Telephone
500
Forum Research
May 14, 2012
PDF
27
34
32
5
IVR
1,072
Nanos Research
May 13, 2012
PDF
31.0
33.6
28.5
5.6
Telephone
500
Forum Research
April 17, 2012
PDF
28
34
31
5
IVR
1,084
Nanos Research
April 15, 2012
PDF
35.4
32.1
26.5
6.0
Telephone
501
Environics
April 13, 2012
HTML
27
37
30
6
Telephone
500
Forum Research
March 28, 2012
PDF
30
34
30
5
IVR
1,131
Forum Research
March 13, 2012
PDF
28
40
23
8
IVR
1,065
Nanos Research
March 5, 2012
PDF
39.9
30.0
24.7
4.3
Telephone
500
Forum Research
February 15, 2012
PDF
32
36
26
5
IVR
1,218
Forum Research
January 18, 2012
PDF
33
41
20
4
IVR
1,041
Nanos Research
November 13, 2011
PDF
39.1
34.5
21.6
3.5
Telephone
500
Innovative Research
November 2, 2011
PDF
39
34
23
4
Online
545
Election 2011
October 6, 2011
PDF
37.65
35.45
22.74
2.92
Ballot
4,316,382
Issues
Economy
Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.[ 46]
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.[ 47] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).[ 48]
The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.[ 49]
The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.[ 50]
The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.[ 51]
The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.[ 52] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"[ 53] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.[ 54]
The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.[ 55]
Transit
Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.[ 56] [ 57]
The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT ) lines in the GTHA , based on the outline of Metrolinx 's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.[ 58] [ 59] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown , but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.[ 60] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.[ 58]
Endorsements
The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic Party
Explicitly not endorsing any party
The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:
References
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External links
Most recent Future elections Lists Electoral districts System