It was the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first federal by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015.
Background
The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.
Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.
The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).
Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. It was Labor from 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it in 1996 and held it until 2016.
While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.
Murphy won the 2022 federal election with a 3.53% two-party-preferred swing towards her, and a 1.71% increase in primary vote. On the other hand, the Liberal Party had a 7.38% decrease in its primary vote. The Greens also contested the election and had a 1.95% increase in primary votes from the previous 2019 election.
Rod Glover, Peta Murphy's husband, was asked by "senior figures and local branch members" to run as Labor's candidate. Additionally, it was speculated in the media that former Victorian premierDaniel Andrews was a possible contender, however neither of these eventuated.[20][21] On 11 January 2024, Jodie Belyea was announced as Labor's candidate.[22]
Liberal
Three candidates ran for Liberal Party preselection − Frankston mayor and councillor Nathan Conroy, former Victorian MP Donna Hope and former Liberal candidate Bec Buchanan. A fourth candidate, David Burgess, withdrew from the race.[23] Conroy won preselection on 14 January 2024.[24]
The by-election saw conservative activist group Advance spend nearly $300,000 to unseat Labor, with its advertising described as 'Trumpian' and a 'fear campaign' by Labor MP Paul Edbrooke.[26][27][28][29]
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