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Division of Robertson

Robertson
Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Robertson in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election
Created1901
MPGordon Reid
PartyLabor
NamesakeSir John Robertson
Electors112,688 (2022)
Area980 km2 (378.4 sq mi)
DemographicProvincial

The Division of Robertson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

Geography

Federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined since 1984, at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[1]

History

Sir John Robertson, the division's namesake

The division was proclaimed at Federation in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election in 1901. The division was named for the fifth Premier of New South Wales, Sir John Robertson.

The Division of Robertson was originally anchored in rural central NSW, encompassing the area around Dubbo, Mudgee and Wellington.

It moved eastward to take in Gosford in 1913, and since then it has been moved further eastward in successive redistributions. By 1969, it had moved to approximately its current position on the Central Coast, immediately north of the Hawkesbury River, and now includes none of its original territory. Nonetheless, it has retained the name of Robertson, in part because the Australian Electoral Commission is required to preserve the names of original electorates where possible.[2]

Robertson encompasses the towns of Woy Woy, Gosford and Terrigal.

Two of its members have served as Senators prior or subsequent to their tenures on Robertson. Former Senator Belinda Neal was elected in Robertson in 2007 and Deborah O'Neill became a Senator shortly after losing Robertson in 2013.

In recent years, Robertson has been a bellwether electorate in federal elections, taking on a character similar to mortgage belt seats on Sydney's outer fringe. It has been held by a member of the party of government since the 1983 federal election. In addition, after Mike Kelly became the first opposition MP elected to represent Eden-Monaro (in 2016) since 1975, Robertson currently holds the record for the longest-running bellwether seat in Australia.

The current Member for Robertson, since the 2022 federal election, is Gordon Reid, a member of the Australian Labor Party.

The new bellwether

Ahead of the 2016 election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed Robertson in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as bellwether electorates. Prior to the 2016 election, the seat of Eden-Monaro was long regarded as Australia's most famous bellwether. From the 1972 election until the 2013 election – over 40 years – Eden-Monaro was won by the party that also won government. No longer the nation's famous bellwether seat after the Labor opposition won it at the 2016 election, the nation's new longest-running bellwether is Robertson – continually won by the party that won government since the 1983 election.[3] This trend in Robertson would continue in the 2022 election, with Labor winning the seat and Government.

Members

Image Member Party Term Notes
  Henry Willis
(1860–1950)
Free Trade 29 March 1901
1906
Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter in 1910
  Anti-Socialist 1906 –
26 May 1909
  Liberal 26 May 1909 –
13 April 1910
  William Johnson
(1871–1916)
Labor 13 April 1910
31 May 1913
Lost seat
  William Fleming
(1874–1961)
Liberal 31 May 1913
17 February 1917
Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter. Lost seat
  Nationalist 17 February 1917 –
March 1921
  Country March 1921 –
16 December 1922
  Sydney Gardner
(1884–1965)
Nationalist 16 December 1922
7 May 1931
Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Lyons. Lost seat
  United Australia 7 May 1931 –
21 September 1940
  Eric Spooner
(1891–1952)
21 September 1940
21 August 1943
Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Ryde and served as Deputy Leader of the United Australia Party in NSW. Served as minister under Menzies and Fadden. Lost seat
  Thomas Williams
(1897–1992)
Labor 21 August 1943
10 December 1949
Lost seat
  Roger Dean
(1913–1998)
Liberal 10 December 1949
30 September 1964
Resigned to become Administrator of the Northern Territory
  William Bridges-Maxwell
(1929–1992)
5 December 1964
25 October 1969
Lost seat
  Barry Cohen
(1935–2017)
Labor 25 October 1969
19 February 1990
Served as minister under Hawke. Retired
  Frank Walker
(1942–2012)
24 March 1990
2 March 1996
Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Georges River. Served as minister under Keating. Lost seat
  Jim Lloyd
(1954–)
Liberal 2 March 1996
24 November 2007
Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Howard. Served as minister under Howard. Lost seat
  Belinda Neal
(1963–)
Labor 24 November 2007
19 July 2010
Previously a member of the Senate. Lost preselection and retired
  Deborah O'Neill
(1961–)
21 August 2010
7 September 2013
Lost seat. Later appointed to the Senate in 2013
  Lucy Wicks
(1973–)
Liberal 7 September 2013
21 May 2022
Lost seat
  Gordon Reid
(1992–)
Labor 21 May 2022
present
Incumbent

Election results

Graphical summary

Two-party-preferred vote results in Robertson
2022 Australian federal election: Robertson[4]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Lucy Wicks 38,448 39.96 −6.90
Labor Gordon Reid 36,231 37.66 +3.56
Greens Shelly McGrath 9,642 10.02 +2.11
One Nation Billy O'Grady 3,679 3.82 +3.82
United Australia Barbara-Jane Murray 2,792 2.90 +0.09
Animal Justice Patrick Murphy 1,949 2.03 −0.05
Indigenous-Aboriginal Jeffrey Lawson 1,127 1.17 +1.17
Informed Medical Options Kate Mason 1,114 1.16 +1.16
Liberal Democrats Bentley Logan 736 0.76 +0.76
Australian Citizens Paul Borthwick 272 0.28 +0.28
Federation Alexandra Hafner 220 0.23 +0.23
Total formal votes 96,210 93.88 +1.12
Informal votes 6,274 6.12 −1.12
Turnout 102,484 91.07 −2.10
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Gordon Reid 50,277 52.26 +6.50
Liberal Lucy Wicks 45,933 47.74 −6.50
Labor gain from Liberal Swing +6.50
Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of Robertson in the 2022 federal election. checkY indicates at what stage the winning candidate had over 50% of the votes and was declared the winner.

References

  1. ^ Muller, Damon (14 November 2017). "The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 19 April 2022.
  2. ^ "Guidelines for naming divisions". Australian Electoral Commission. 20 July 2011. Retrieved 30 March 2013.
  3. ^ The Bellwether Contests: Antony Green ABC
  4. ^ Robertson, NSW, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.

33°22′55″S 151°12′47″E / 33.382°S 151.213°E / -33.382; 151.213

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