Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa

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"Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa" (Japanese: 今日の香港、明日の台湾、明後日の沖縄, Chinese: 今日香港，明日臺灣，後天沖繩) is a phrase referencing the expansion of China.^[1] It reflects concerns regarding the united front strategy employed by the Chinese Communist Party toward Hong Kong and Taiwan, which are believed to also affect Okinawa and key leaders of its independence movement.^[2][3] Taiwanese media interpret this sentiment as "After Hong Kong, China will invade Taiwan, and then it will target Okinawa in Japan."^[4][5]

The slogan originates from the phrase Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, which was imported into Japanese discourse from the Sunflower Student Movement and the Umbrella Movement.^[4][5] This phrase is primarily used in discussions in Japan.

Amid the escalating tensions in East Asia, including the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests and the subsequent U.S.-China cold war, as well as the implementation of the "Coast Guard Law [ja],"^[6][7] which explicitly grants the China Coast Guard the authority to use weapons, this phrase has been adopted in Japan. It has begun appearing in the media and among prominent figures.^{[8][9][10][11]}

In addition to "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Okinawa," there are other variations such as "Yesterday Xinjiang, Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan," especially in the context of re-education camp and "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Japan."^[12][13]

Online, illustrations depict the "Grim Reaper" adorned with the Five-star Red Flag knocking on doors labeled with "Xinjiang," "Tibet," "Hong Kong," "Taiwan," "Okinawa," and "Hokkaido."^[14]

In the editorial department of Sankei Shimbun, a discussion program featuring Ryushou Kadota [ja] was published on YouTube under the title "Today Hong Kong Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa".^[15][16]

According to Fumio Ota [ja], an article published in the Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party, reported that "on March 4, 2006, a referendum was held in Okinawa, where 75% of residents demanded independence and the resumption of free exchanges with China, while the remaining 25% sought autonomy but remained loyal to Japan." Ota discusses the Chinese perception of Okinawa in relation to the phrase "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa".^[8] The article on Okinawa's independence in the Global Times is based on arguments made by Tang Chunfeng. Additionally, there is a group in China known as the Preparatory Committee for the Chinese Ryukyu Special Autonomous Region, which claims that Okinawa is part of China.^[17]

Akihisa Nagashima referenced the situation in Hong Kong while citing the phrase "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa," emphasizing the importance of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.^[18]

On November 17, 2020, the "Forum on Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Okinawa" was held, organized by the Asia Local Government Forum, featuring discussions with former UK Foreign Office official Patrick Sprunt, former Taipei City Council member Lin Jinzhang [zh], Ishigaki City Council member Yoshiyuki Toita [ja], House of Representatives member and Deputy Minister of Defense Yasuhide Nakayama, and journalist Yoshiko Sakurai.^[19] Toita noted that while there had been friction with Taiwan over the Senkaku Islands, a peaceful resolution had been achieved and argued that China should be led toward international cooperation regarding human rights and the rule of law. Meanwhile, Sprunt predicted that the order of "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, Day After Tomorrow Okinawa" is reversed, suggesting that the Senkaku Islands issue should come first.^[19]

Wen-Chung Huang [ja] stated, "Next after Hong Kong is Taiwan, and then China will target Okinawa".^[20]

Zhao Zhongzheng, a supporter of Tsai Ing-wen, remarked, "The Communist Party's fangs will inevitably turn toward Taiwan after Hong Kong, and then towards Japan. What is happening in Hong Kong today could happen tomorrow in Taiwan and the day after tomorrow in Okinawa".^[21]

Kim Bí-Lîng emphasized that "Japan and Taiwan are a community of destiny," asserting that "Japan stands with Taiwan," which would save both Taiwan and Japan. She argued that the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party should be a time to engrave "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, the Day After Tomorrow Okinawa" in our hearts.^[22]

On May 18, 2021, Letep Ahmet, a director of the Japan Uyghur Association [ja], commented during a discussion at the Hong Kong International Solidarity Campaign and Milk Tea Alliance event regarding the phrase "Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan, the Day After Tomorrow Okinawa," stating, "A regime that has detained and tortured millions of people and destroyed traditional culture for its own convenience will do the same externally. Please do not underestimate this".^[23][24]

In liberal discourse, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Okinawa are often discussed in the context of being deprived of autonomy by the Chinese and Japanese governments, frequently relating to issues concerning U.S. military bases in Japan and the relocation of the Futenma Air Base. During an online discussion on July 11, 2020, titled "Thinking with the Youth of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Okinawa: Regarding the Hong Kong National Security Law," participants including Tomoko Ako [ja], Seiya Hoshikawa [ja], Toshin Komatsu [ja], and Jinshirō Motoyama [ja] discussed issues of autonomy, with Motoyama asserting the importance of Okinawa's autonomy.^[25]

On April 3, 2021, an online dialogue titled "Hong Kong, Taiwan, Okinawa, and 'Japan'—Imagining a New World" featured discussions by Wu Rwei-ren [ja], Yasukatsu Matsushima [ja], Yoko Fumio [ja], and Take Komagome [ja]. While Matsushima advocated for the self-determination of the Ryukyu people, Wu supported a free and open Indo-Pacific strategy from a realist perspective.^[26]

Tsuyoshi Nojima [ja] stated that Hong Kong and Taiwan serve as "canaries in the coal mine" for how foreign countries, including Japan, might respond to China. In this context, he remarked, "The Tibet and Xinjiang of the day before yesterday, yesterday's Hong Kong, today's Ukraine, tomorrow's Taiwan, and the day after tomorrow's Japan".^[27][28]

In July 2014, Chinese pro-democracy activist Chen Pokung [ja] remarked on the increasingly aggressive stance of the Chinese Communist Party externally, stating, “In the East China Sea, pressure is being intensified on Japan, and in the South China Sea, on India and the Philippines, as the focus shifts from internal dictatorship to external dictatorship”.^[29]

On September 3, 2019, Hong Kong media outlet HK01 introduced a comic titled "What Happened to Me: Testimony of a Certain Uyghur Woman" by cartoonist Tomomi Shimizu [ja], highlighting the experiences of Mihrigul Tursun in a Xinjiang internment camp. It noted that among netizens, the phrase “today's Uyghur, tomorrow's Hong Kong, the day after tomorrow's Okinawa” was gaining traction.^[30]

On January 13, 2020, The Storm MediaWind Media discussed the differences in security dynamics between Europe, strongly united by NATO, and East Asia, where individual security treaties such as the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea, ANZUS, and the Taiwan Relations Act exist. It reported that the phrase “today's Hong Kong, tomorrow's Taiwan, day after tomorrow's Okinawa” was spreading in Japan.^[31]

On September 18, 2020, Akio Yaita [ja], the head of the Sankei Shimbun's Taipei bureau, appeared on Taiwan's Era News and referenced this phrase while introducing the special edition of Seiron [ja]’s January 2020 issue titled "Taiwan Crisis".^[32]

On March 28, 2021, the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong English-language newspaper, pointed out that if China were to attack Taiwan, U.S. military bases in Japan could also be targeted.^[33]

On May 18, 2021, Liu Zhongjing [zh] responded to the slogan “today's Hong Kong, tomorrow's Taiwan, the day after tomorrow's Okinawa” by stating that “yesterday's Shanghai and the day before yesterday's South Guangdong” reflect a nationalism that could restore stability in the Far East.^[34]

On October 19, 2021, Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Center for Policy Research in India, noted that if Taiwan were occupied, it would undermine freedom of navigation in a vital region and alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. He suggested that "Okinawa may be next".^[35][36]

On November 1, 2021, Chen Mingjun, an advisor to the Taiwanese representative in Japan and deputy director of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Boston, who had previously served as director of the important affairs office at the Presidential Office, stated, "Japan and Taiwan have always helped each other. Polls show that the country most favored by Taiwanese people is always Japan. China promised to uphold ‘one country, two systems’ with the UK for 50 years, but it has taken away freedom from Hong Kong. The phrase ‘yesterday's Uyghur, today's Hong Kong, tomorrow's Taiwan, the day after tomorrow's Okinawa and Kyushu’ that was whispered then is now gaining a chilling reality".^[37]

On November 26, 2021, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton stated, “If Taiwan is taken, it is certain that the next target will be the Senkaku Islands,” suggesting that if China successfully dominates Taiwan through force, it would then aim for Okinawa's Senkaku Islands.^[38]

On December 16, 2021, Wang Zunyan [zh], a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, in Taiwan commented on the Self-Defense Forces' deployment in the Nansei Islands, stating, “Japan and Taiwan are both facing threats from China. When the Hong Kong issue arose, voices were raised that this could be tomorrow's Taiwan and the day after tomorrow's Japan. It is crucial for both sides to engage in defense exchanges and information sharing. The people of Taiwan are grateful for the rising interest in Taiwan's security issues in Japan”.^[39]

On January 6, 2022, Patrick M. Cronin, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Hudson Institute, mentioned, “I was told directly by Chinese Communist Party officials that ‘Okinawa is a part of China’”.^[40][41]

On October 7, 2022, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan reported that Okinawan residents were feeling anxious about China's military buildup, noting that "if Taiwan is controlled, it will serve as a stepping stone for the Chinese government to demonstrate its ambitions towards Okinawa. Thus, the fate of Okinawa could be influenced by changes in Taiwan’s situation".^[42]

• Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan
• Map of National Shame
• Chinese irredentism