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2012 United States Senate election in Utah

2012 United States Senate election in Utah
← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout55.4% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Orrin Hatch Scott Howell
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 657,608 301,873
Percentage 65.31% 29.98%
County results
Hatch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Howell:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Orrin Hatch
Republican

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh term against the Democratic candidate, former state Senator and IBM executive Scott Howell, in a rematch of the 2000 Senate election,with Hatch doing slightly better than in 2000. .[2] This would be the last time Hatch was elected to the Senate before his retirement in 2018.

Background

Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.5% of the vote against Pete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah. Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory of Mike Lee over Bob Bennett in the 2010 election.[3]

Republican nomination

Convention

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary for Utah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010, Mike Lee defeated Bob Bennett in the 2010 Utah Senate election.[3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. Senator Mike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary.[16] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until after Labor Day of 2011.[17]

In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin endorsed Hatch.[18] The fiscally conservative 501(c)4 organization Club for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, State Children's Health Insurance Program, No Child Left Behind Act, Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election.[19] In an interview with Politico, Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor of Equal Opportunity to Serve Act and the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993.[20] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.

Endorsements

Orrin Hatch
Dan Liljenquist

Polling

In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% went for Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided.[26] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% went for Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod.[27]

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Orrin Hatch 2,243 57.25
Republican Dan Liljenquist 1,108 28.28
Republican Chris Herrod 421 10.75
Republican Tim Aalders 78 1.99
Republican Dale Ash 18 0.46
Republican David Chiu 17 0.43
Republican Jeremy Friedbaum 15 0.38
Republican Loy Arlan Brunson 14 0.36
Republican Kevin Fisk 3 0.08
Republican Dub Lawrence 1 0.03
Total votes 3,918 100
Republican convention, 2nd round results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Orrin Hatch 2,313 59.19
Republican Dan Liljenquist 1,595 40.81
Total votes 3,908 100

Primary

Candidates

  • Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Dan Liljenquist, former state senator

Campaign

After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist.[28]

Endorsements

Orrin Hatch
Dan Liljenquist

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch 		Dan
Liljenquist 		Other/
Undecided
Utah Data Points/Key Research[34] June 12–19, 2012 500 ±4.4% 56% 25% 18%
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] June 15–21, 2012 737 ±3.6% 60% 32% 8%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Hatch—>90%
  •   Hatch—80–90%
  •   Hatch—70–80%
  •   Hatch—60–70%
  •   Hatch—50–60%
Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Orrin Hatch (incumbent) 146,394 66.5%
Republican Dan Liljenquist 73,668 33.5%
Total votes 220,062 100.0%

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary.[39]

Democratic convention results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Scott Howell - 63
Democratic Pete Ashdown - 37
Total votes - 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Scott Howell (D) $421,086 $420,779 $306 $0
Orrin Hatch (R) $11,577,851 $13,140,209 $779,719 $515,845
William Barron (I) $17,157 $14,116 $3,038 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[41][42][43]

Top contributors

Scott Howell Contribution Orrin Hatch Contribution William Barron Contribution
International Union of Operating Engineers $10,000 OC Tanner Inc $72,010 Peace River Citrus Products $2,000
Altaview Orthodontics $5,000 Cancer Treatment Centers of America $67,500 Cirque Property $1,000
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $5,000 Cerberus Capital Management $65,000
International Association of Iron Workers $5,000 Fresenius Medical Care $65,500
Intermountain Healthcare National Education Association $5,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $54,500
Shurtleff Construction $5,000 Ernst & Young $53,000
St Mark's Hospital $5,000 PricewaterhouseCoopers $42,008
United Steelworkers $5,000 Herbalife International $41,900
Sutter Health $4,500 Marriott International $39,500
IBM Corporation $3,150 Apollo Global Management $39,000
Source: OpenSecrets[44]

Top industries

Scott Howell Contribution Orrin Hatch Contribution William Barron Contribution
Retired $43,100 Financial Institutions $1,113,746 Retired $4,050
Health Professionals $17,000 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $834,601 Agribusiness $2,000
Building Trade Unions $15,000 Lobbyists $508,567 Real Estate $1,000
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $14,500 Insurance $495,968 Education $750
Lawyers/Law Firms $12,250 Lawyers/Law Firms $479,871 Misc Business $500
Industrial Unions $10,000 Health Professionals $447,415
General Contractors $7,500 Real Estate $412,394
Automotive $5,000 Health Services/HMOs $396,132
Public Sector Unions $5,000 Leadership PACs $394,550
High-Tech Industry $4,900 Oil & Gas $391,878
Source: OpenSecrets[45]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Solid R November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Safe R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[48] Safe R November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49] Safe R November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch (R) 		Scott
Howell (D) 		Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] June 15–21, 2012 1,228 ±2.8% 63% 29% 8%
Utah State University[50] October 8–13, 2012 n/a ±7.6% 67% 24% 9%
Key Research[51] October 9–13, 2012 500 ±4.4% 61% 22% 17%
Deseret News/KSL[52] October 26 – November 1, 2012 870 ±3.4% 63% 26% 11%
Hypothetical polling

with Dan Liljenquist

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dan
Liljenquist (R) 		Scott
Howell (D) 		Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] June 15–21, 2012 1228 ±2.8% 48% 34% 18%

with Jason Chaffetz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jason
Chaffetz (R) 		Jan
Graham (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 53% 34% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jason
Chaffetz (R) 		Sam
Granato (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 54% 33% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jason
Chaffetz (R) 		Jim
Matheson (D) 		Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] June 13–16, 2011 406 ±5.0% 46% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 42% 47% 11%
Mason-Dixon[55] August 8–10, 2011 625 ±4.0% 49% 43% 8%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch (R) 		Jim
Matheson (D) 		Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] June 13–16, 2011 406 ±5.0% 47% 47% 6%
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 44% 45% 11%
Mason-Dixon[55] August 8–10, 2011 625 ±4.0% 48% 43% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch (R) 		Jan
Graham (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 55% 34% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch (R) 		Sam
Granato (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] July 8–10, 2011 732 ±3.6% 56% 31% 13%

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Orrin
Hatch 		Jason
Chaffetz 		Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] June 13–16, 2011 406 ±5.0% 47% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling[56] July 8–10, 2011 406 ±4.9% 43% 47% 10%
Mason-Dixon[55] August 8–10, 2011 305 ±5.7% 49% 39% 12%

Results

United States Senate election in Utah, 2012[57]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Orrin Hatch (incumbent) 657,608 65.31% +2.95%
Democratic Scott Howell 301,873 29.98% −1.08%
Constitution Shaun McCausland 31,905 3.17% −0.60%
Justice Daniel Geery 8,342 0.83% N/A
Independent Bill Barron 7,172 0.71% N/A
Total votes 1,006,901 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Hatch won all 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[58]

District Hatch Howell Representative
1st 69.84% 25.63% Rob Bishop
2nd 60.84% 33.85% Chris Stewart
3rd 70.35% 25.14% Jason Chaffetz
4th 59.92% 35.62% Jim Matheson

See also

References

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ^ "Sen. Orrin Hatch forced into primary for first time since '76, faces Dan Liljenquist in June". Deseret News. April 21, 2012. Archived from the original on April 23, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  3. ^ a b Weiner, Rachel (February 9, 2011). "Orrin Hatch courts tea party activists, Tea Party Express divided". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on June 8, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  4. ^ a b c d "Utah Republican Party Candidates List".[permanent dead link‍]
  5. ^ "L.A. Brunson Campaign Interview and Announcement". K-Talk Radio. October 25, 2011.
  6. ^ a b c d e "Election Results: U.S. Senate Candidates". Utah Republican Party. April 21, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  7. ^ Miller, Sean J. (December 8, 2010). "Sen. Hatch: 'I intend to run, and I intend to win'". The Hill. Retrieved December 11, 2010.
  8. ^ Gehrke, Robert (January 6, 2012). "Rep. Chris Herrod joins campaign to defeat Orrin Hatch". The Salt Lake Tribune.
  9. ^ Gehrke, Robert (January 4, 2012). "Liljenquist is in against Hatch". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved January 9, 2012.
  10. ^ Catanese, David; Sherman, Jake (August 22, 2011). "Jason Chaffetz is out, but Orrin Hatch isn't in the clear". Politico. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  11. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 22, 2011). "Chaffetz Passes on Hatch Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 10, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  12. ^ Burr, Thomas (February 6, 2012). "Jon Huntsman rules out another political bid – for now". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012. Retrieved February 8, 2012.
  13. ^ Gehrke, Robert (January 6, 2012). "Tea Party leader Kirkham ready to run for governor". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved January 9, 2012.
  14. ^ Hesterman, Billy (December 1, 2011). "Philpot to challenge Herbert in 2012". Daily Herald. Archived from the original on January 3, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  15. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (June 9, 2011). "Two Utah political heavyweights eyeing key races". Deseret News. Archived from the original on June 13, 2011. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  16. ^ "Mike Lee: Orrin Hatch Not Getting My Endorsement In 2012 Primary". Huffington Post. February 11, 2011.
  17. ^ Gehrke, Robert (June 1, 2011). "Sources say Chaffetz is in against Hatch". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  18. ^ "Key National Voice Endorses Orrin Hatch For Senate". Orrin Hatch for Utah. June 14, 2011. Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  19. ^ Keller, Barney (June 1, 2011). "Run, Jason, Run!". Club for Growth. Archived from the original on March 24, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  20. ^ Sherman, Jake (June 3, 2011). "Jason Chaffetz leaning toward challenging Orrin Hatch". Politico. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "Endorsements & Quotes". Orrin Hatch for Utah. Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  22. ^ "GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc". October 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 25, 2012.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Endorsements". Dan Liljenquist - Conservative for U.S. Senate. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  24. ^ "Issues". Dan Liljenquist - Conservative for U.S. Senate. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  25. ^ "2012 GOA-PVF Candidates". Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund. Archived from the original on December 22, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  26. ^ Schott, Bryan (January 20, 2012). "UtahPolicy.com Poll: Salt Lake County Republicans Prefer Hatch over Liljenquist". Utah Policy. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  27. ^ "Liljenquist, Herbert and Swallow lead straw poll results among Box Elder GOP". Cache Valley Daily. February 2, 2012. Archived from the original on March 13, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  28. ^ Allahpundit (April 21, 2012). "Orrin Hatch fails to clinch GOP nomination in Utah — by 0.9%". Hot Air. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  29. ^ Scoop, The Right (May 23, 2012). "Sarah Palin announces endorsement of Orrin Hatch for US Senate". The Right Scoop. Archived from the original on May 27, 2012.
  30. ^ Davidson, Lee (June 6, 2012). "Herbert endorses Hatch, calls him 'best choice for Utah'". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved June 7, 2012.
  31. ^ "Grades - Utah". National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund. Archived from the original on October 10, 2012. Retrieved June 22, 2012.
  32. ^ Hartman, Rachel Rose (June 15, 2012). "Santorum endorses Hatch's opponent in Utah primary". ABC News. Archived from the original on June 17, 2012. Retrieved June 22, 2012.
  33. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Conservative Candidate Dan Liljenquist for Utah Senate". FreedomWorks. April 26, 2012. Archived from the original on May 5, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  34. ^ Utah Data Points/Key Research
  35. ^ a b c Deseret News/KSL-TV
  36. ^ "2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. November 8, 2016.
  37. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (November 8, 2011). "Pete Ashdown to try again to unseat Sen. Hatch". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 10, 2011. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  38. ^ Gehrke, Robert (March 15, 2012). "From president to school board, candidates file for Utah elections". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  39. ^ Cortez, Marjorie (April 21, 2012). "Utah Democrats pick Scott Howell as candidate for U.S. Senate". Deseret News. Archived from the original on April 23, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  40. ^ a b c Frandsen, Eric (March 15, 2012). "Hatch faces 9 challengers from within his own party". Cache Valley Daily. Archived from the original on March 18, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  41. ^ "Howell Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link‍]
  42. ^ "Hatch Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link‍]
  43. ^ "Barron Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link‍]
  44. ^ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Utah Senate". OpenSecrets.
  45. ^ "Top Industries 2012 Race: Utah Senate". OpenSecrets.
  46. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  47. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  48. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  49. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  50. ^ Utah State University
  51. ^ Key Research
  52. ^ Deseret News/KSL
  53. ^ a b c d e f Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ a b c Deseret News/KSL-TV
  55. ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ "Election Results - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections".
  58. ^ "Utah 2012 sen-by-cd".

Official campaign websites

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