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2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout69.6%[1] Decrease
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 992,053 736,918
Percentage 56.40% 41.89%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Connecticut
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Mayoral Elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Like most of New England, Connecticut is considered a strongly blue state, having voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 20%. The state last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in George H. W. Bush's landslide victory in the 1988 election.

Harris comfortably won the state by 14.5 points, performing worse than Biden in 2020, but slightly better than Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump secured 41.9% of the vote to record the best Republican performance in Connecticut since 2004.[3]

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden sought re-election to a second term and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[4][5] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[6] The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[7]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary

The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the New York primary. [8]

Connecticut Republican primary, April 2, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 34,750 77.88% 28 0 28
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 6,229 13.96% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,166 4.85% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 1,289 2.89% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 184 0.41% 0 0 0
Total: 44,618 100.00% 28 0 28

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.

Connecticut Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 55,533 84.8% 60 60
Uncommitted 7,619 11.6%
Marianne Williamson 1,490 2.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 577 0.9%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn) 310 0.5%
Total: 65,529 100.0% 60 14 79

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Connecticut held a ranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024.[11]

2024 Connecticut Libertarian straw poll
Candidate Round 1 T. Round 2 T. Round 3 T. Round 4 T. Round 5 T. Round 6 T. Round 7
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Chase Oliver 37 34.9% +1 38 35.8% 38 37.6% +3 41 41.0% +1 42 42.4% +2 44 44.4% +5 49 51.0%
Jacob Hornberger 12 11.3% 12 11.3% +1 13 12.9% +1 14 14.0% +2 16 16.2% +4 20 20.2% +4 24 25.0%
Michael Rectenwald 14 14.6% 14 13.2% 14 13.9% 14 14.0% +2 16 16.2% +2 18 18.2% +5 23 24.0%
Joshua Smith 10 9.4% +1 11 10.4% 11 10.9% 11 11.0% +2 13 13.1% +4 17 17.2% –17 Eliminated
Mike ter Maat 9 8.5% 9 8.5% 9 8.9% +1 10 10.0% +2 12 12.1% –12 Eliminated
Lars Mapstead 7 6.6% +1 8 7.5% 8 7.9% +2 10 10.0% –10 Eliminated
Charles Ballay 7 6.6% +1 8 7.5% 8 7.9% –8 Eliminated
None of the above 6 5.7% 6 5.7% –6 Eliminated
Joseph Collins Jr. 4 3.8% –4 Eliminated
Active ballots 106 –5 101 –1 100 –1 99 –3 96

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[12] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[13] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[17] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[18] Safe D August 28, 2024
538[19] Solid D August 23, 2024
RCP[20] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[21] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
MassINC Polling Group[22][A] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 37% 3% 8%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[23][B] April 13–21, 2024 411 (LV) – 55% 38% 7%
Emerson College[24][C] October 19–21, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
Emerson College[25][C] September 7–9, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 36% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[26] July 26–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% 9%
Emerson College[27] May 10–11, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 38% 11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[23][B] April 13–21, 2024 411 (LV) – 49% 41% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[23][B] April 13–21, 2024 411 (LV) – 50% 33% 17%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
992,053 56.40% Decrease 2.84%
Republican
736,918 41.89% Increase 2.68%
Green
14,281 0.81% Increase 0.40%
Independent
8,448 0.48% N/A
Libertarian
6,729 0.38% Decrease 0.73%
Write-in 581 0.03% Steady
Total votes 1,759,010 100.00% N/A

By county

County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Fairfield 267,019 59.04% 178,263 39.41% 7,021 1.55% 88,756 19.63% 452,303
Hartford 259,366 60.41% 162,572 37.87% 7,387 1.72% 96,794 22.54% 429,325
Litchfield 47,940 45.24% 56,452 53.27% 1,577 1.49% -8,512 -8.03% 105,969
Middlesex 54,173 55.55% 41,654 42.71% 1,692 1.74% 12,519 12.84% 97,519
New Haven 218,981 55.02% 171,435 43.08% 7,571 1.90% 47,546 11.94% 397,987
New London 76,190 55.41% 58,858 42.81% 2,452 1.78% 17,332 12.60% 137,500
Tolland 43,311 53.13% 36,773 45.11% 1,436 1.76% 6,538 8.02% 81,520
Windham 25,073 44.08% 30,911 54.34% 903 1.59% -5,838 -10.26% 56,887
Totals 992,053 56.40% 736,918 41.89% 30,039 1.71% 255,135 14.51% 1,759,010

By congressional district

Harris won all five congressional districts.

District Harris Trump Harris
vs House[31] 		Harris
vs 2020[32] 		Trump
vs House[31] 		Trump
vs 2020[32] 		Representative
1st 60.59% 37.71% −2.54% −2.71% +2.89% +2.49% John B. Larson
2nd 53.01% 45.29% −5.00% −1.71% +3.31% +2.01% Joe Courtney
3rd 56.05% 41.99% −2.83% −3.18% +0.91% +2.48% Rosa DeLauro
4th 60.89% 37.53% −0.17% −3.93% +0.19% +3.71% Jim Himes
5th 51.99% 46.41% −1.41% −2.64% −0.17% +2.53% Jahana Hayes

Analysis

Trump flipped 14 municipalities across the state, including Bristol, Connecticut's twelfth-most populous city.[33] Conversely, Harris flipped the small town of Warren.[34][35]

Harris won all five congressional districts, performing the best in the fourth district to match Biden's strongest result there in 2020. However, she ceded ground by 1.71% to 3.93% across districts compared to 2020 despite a uniform victory. Such a result was also consistent with her underperformance in comparison to Democratic nominees for the election to the House of Representatives.

Conversely, Trump outran Republican nominees in four out of five districts, earning a poorer result in the fifth district. He still improved on his 2020 performance in all five districts, gaining 2.01% to 3.71% more votes.[32][36][user-generated source]

A graphical representation of Harris's (top) and Trump's (bottom) in comparison to 2024 House election (left) and 2020 presidential election (right)

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by The Connecticut Mirror
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by WTNH-TV

References

  1. ^ "Registration and Party Enrollment Statistics as of October 31, 2024" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. ^ "Connecticut Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  4. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  5. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  7. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  8. ^ "Election Calendars".
  9. ^ "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  10. ^ "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  11. ^ @LPofCT (April 3, 2024). "The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  18. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  19. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  21. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  22. ^ Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024). "CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state". The Connecticut Mirror.
  23. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  24. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022). "Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections". Emerson Polling.
  25. ^ Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022). "News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating". WTNH-TV.
  26. ^ Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022). "New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers". The Hartford Courant.
  27. ^ "Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
  28. ^ "Election Night Reporting". Secretary of State of Connecticut. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  29. ^ "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  30. ^ "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  31. ^ a b "Connecticut House Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  32. ^ a b c Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  33. ^ "Connecticut Cities by Population (2024)". Connecticut Demographics. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  34. ^ "Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  35. ^ "Connecticut President Results: Harris Wins". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  36. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
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