The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States[1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.
Significant bellwethers
Deviation in one election
The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980.[2][3]
Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
The table above lists counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in at least 85% of elections from 1980 through 2020. This yields 125 counties with 11 or more wins during this period. The probability of this occurring by chance in a completely random distribution is quite low and is statistically significant.
However, the relevance of using a random prediction model to evaluate bellwether counties has been questioned by political analysts. Voting behavior in the United States is not random but is shaped by entrenched demographic, cultural, and political factors.[4][5] Most counties vote predictably along partisan lines, with many states and regions consistently favoring one party. This predictability undermines the argument that bellwether counties’ alignment with national outcomes is purely a matter of statistical chance.
Bellwether counties are notable because they deviate from this predictability, reflecting a mix of voter demographics and preferences that align with broader national trends. Studies have shown that bellwether counties often mirror key swing states or represent diverse, politically balanced communities.[6] This alignment suggests that their predictive accuracy arises from real-world dynamics rather than randomness.
Critics of the random model argue that it oversimplifies the complexities of electoral behavior and ignores the systemic factors that make bellwether counties significant. For example, they often serve as microcosms of the national electorate, capturing shifts in voting patterns driven by economic, social, and cultural changes.[7] Reducing their accuracy to mere statistical coincidence disregards these deeper insights.
^This county voted with the popular vote each time. The last time it deviated from the popular vote was in 1976, giving it the longest current streak in the nation.[citation needed][as of?]
