2020 United States presidential election in Montana
2020 United States presidential election in Montana Turnout 81.33% (of registered voters)[ 1]
County Results Precinct Results
Trump
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Biden
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Tie/No Data
The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[ 2] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party 's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence , against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden , and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris . Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.[ 3]
Trump won Montana 56.92% to 40.55%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.4% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state . Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992 , and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008 .
Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County , a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation . He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena , the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt , which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation . Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton 's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention .[ 4]
Democratic primary
2020 Montana Democratic presidential primary[ 5]
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates[ 6]
Joe Biden
111,706
74.48
18
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
22,033
14.69
1
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
11,984
7.99
No Preference
4,250
2.83
Total
149,973
100%
19
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen , Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [ 7] Likely R
September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [ 8] Lean R
September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [ 9] Likely R
July 14, 2020
Politico [ 10] Likely R
September 8, 2020
RCP [ 11] Lean R
August 3, 2020
Niskanen [ 12] Likely R
July 26, 2020
CNN [ 13] Safe R
August 3, 2020
The Economist [ 14] Likely R
September 2, 2020
CBS News [ 15] Likely R
August 16, 2020
270towin [ 16] Likely R
August 2, 2020
ABC News [ 17] Lean R
July 31, 2020
NPR [ 18] Likely R
August 3, 2020
NBC News [ 19] Likely R
August 6, 2020
538 [ 20] Likely R
November 2, 2020
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Polls
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald Republican Joe Democratic Jo Libertarian Other
Undecided
Change Research [ 23] Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020
920 (LV)
± 3.5%
50%
45%
2%
1%[ c]
1%
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
1,021 (LV)
± 4%
52% [ d] 46%
–
–
–
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Oct 1–28, 2020
1,471 (LV)
± 4.0%
50%
48%
–
–
–
Public Policy Polling /Protect Our Care [ 25] [ A] Oct 26–27, 2020
886 (LV)
± 3.3%
49%
47%
–
–
3%
Montana State University Billings [ 26] Oct 19–24, 2020
546 (LV)
± 4.2%
52%
45%
1%
–
2%
Siena College /NYT Upshot [ 27] Oct 18–20, 2020
758 (LV)
± 4.4%
49%
43%
3%
2%[ e]
3%[ f]
Strategies 360 /NBCMT [ 28] Oct 15–20, 2020
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
51%
43%
3%
–
4%
RMG Research /PoliticalIQ [ 29] Oct 15–18, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
50% [ g] 46%
2%
4%[ h]
0%
48% [ i] 48%
2%
4%[ h]
0%
52% [ j] 44%
2%
4%[ h]
0%
Public Policy Polling [ 30] Oct 9–10, 2020
798 (V)
± 3.5%
52%
46%
-
2%[ k]
0%
Emerson College [ 31] Oct 4–7, 2020
500 (LV)
± 3.7%
56%
44%
–
–
–
Data For Progress (D) [ 32] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020
737 (LV)
± 3.6%
49%
43%
3%
0%[ l]
5%
Montana State University Bozeman [ 33] Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2020
1,607 (LV)
± 3.9%
51%
44%
–
4%
2%
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Sep 1–30, 2020
480 (LV)
–
57%
41%
–
–
2%
Siena College /NYT Upshot [ 34] Sep 14–16, 2020
625 (LV)
± 4.8%
49%
42%
2%
2%[ m]
5%[ f]
Fabrizio Ward /Hart Research Associates /AARP [ 35] Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
50%
43%
–
0%[ n]
6%
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Aug 1–31, 2020
562 (LV)
–
52%
46%
–
–
1%
Expedition Strategies /House Majority PAC [ 36] [ B] Aug 22–27, 2020
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
48%
44%
–
–
7%[ f]
Emerson College [ 37] Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020
584 (LV)
± 4.0%
54% [ o] 46%
–
–
–
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Jul 1–31, 2020
527 (LV)
–
53%
44%
–
–
3%
Public Policy Polling /AFSCME [ 38] [ C] Jul 23–24, 2020
917 (V)
–
50%
45%
–
–
5%
Spry Strategies /American Principles Project [ 39] [ D] Jul 11–16, 2020
700 (LV)
± 3.7%
52%
42%
–
–
6%
Civiqs /Daily Kos [ 40] Jul 11–13, 2020
873 (RV)
± 4.2%
49%
45%
-
5%[ p]
1%
Public Policy Polling /Election Twitter [ 41] Jul 9–10, 2020
1,224 (V)
± 2.8%
51%
42%
–
–
7%
SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 24] Jun 8–30, 2020
166 (LV)
–
57%
41%
–
–
2%
University of Montana [ 42] Jun 17–26, 2020
517 (RV)
± 4.3%
52%
38%
–
–
10%
Montana State University Bozeman [ 33] Apr 10–27, 2020
459 (LV)
± 4.6%
45%
40%
–
11%
5%
The Progress Campaign (D)
Apr 14–21, 2020
1,712 (RV)
± 4.6%
51%
42%
–
–
7%[ q]
University of Montana [ 43] Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
56%
34%
–
–
10%
University of Montana [ 44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
54%
47%
–
–
–
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Michael
Undecided
University of Montana [ 43] Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
55%
31%
15%
Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Steve
University of Montana [ 44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
48%
52%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Pete
Undecided
University of Montana [ 43] Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
52%
35%
13%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Kamala
University of Montana [ 44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
55%
45%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Amy
Undecided
University of Montana [ 43] Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
53%
31%
15%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Donald
Generic
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 46] Mar 12–13, 2020
903 (V)
± 3.3%
52%
44%
4%
with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source
Date(s)
Sample[ b]
Marginof error
Joe
Bernie
Donald
Other
University of Montana [ 47] Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019
293 (RV)
± 5.72%
14.7%
8.4%
40%
36.8%[ r]
Electoral slates
These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[ 48]
Results
By county
County
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Various candidates
Margin
Total
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Beaverhead
3,923
69.30%
1,608
28.40%
130
2.30%
2,315
40.90%
5,661
Big Horn
2,207
46.10%
2,491
52.04%
89
1.86%
-284
-5.94%
4,787
Blaine
1,469
47.11%
1,589
50.96%
60
1.93%
-120
-3.85%
3,118
Broadwater
3,173
77.45%
835
20.38%
89
2.17%
2,338
57.07%
4,097
Carbon
4,468
63.35%
2,421
34.33%
164
2.32%
2,047
29.02%
7,053
Carter
775
89.70%
74
8.56%
15
1.74%
701
81.14%
864
Cascade
23,315
58.46%
15,456
38.75%
1,114
2.79%
7,859
19.71%
39,885
Chouteau
1,891
63.78%
991
33.42%
83
2.80%
900
30.36%
2,965
Custer
4,205
71.76%
1,514
25.84%
141
2.40%
2,691
45.92%
5,860
Daniels
799
78.80%
195
19.23%
20
1.97%
604
59.57%
1,014
Dawson
3,758
77.89%
962
19.94%
105
2.17%
2,796
57.95%
4,825
Deer Lodge
2,186
44.69%
2,562
52.38%
143
2.93%
-376
-7.69%
4,891
Fallon
1,375
87.30%
172
10.92%
28
1.78%
1,203
76.38%
1,575
Fergus
4,869
74.83%
1,496
22.99%
142
2.18%
3,373
51.84%
6,507
Flathead
38,321
63.93%
20,274
33.82%
1,343
2.25%
18,047
30.11%
59,938
Gallatin
31,696
44.33%
37,044
51.80%
2,767
3.87%
-5,348
-7.47%
71,507
Garfield
764
93.97%
41
5.04%
8
0.99%
723
88.93%
813
Glacier
1,884
33.54%
3,610
64.27%
123
2.19%
-1,726
-30.73%
5,617
Golden Valley
414
82.31%
78
15.51%
11
2.18%
336
66.80%
503
Granite
1,419
67.51%
638
30.35%
45
2.14%
781
37.16%
2,102
Hill
3,957
55.10%
2,981
41.51%
244
3.39%
976
13.59%
7,182
Jefferson
5,345
65.57%
2,625
32.20%
181
2.23%
2,720
33.37%
8,151
Judith Basin
1,040
77.38%
275
20.46%
29
2.16%
765
56.92%
1,344
Lake
9,322
56.07%
6,916
41.60%
388
2.33%
2,406
14.47%
16,626
Lewis and Clark
21,409
50.64%
19,743
46.70%
1,121
2.66%
1,666
3.94%
42,273
Liberty
821
75.81%
249
22.99%
13
1.20%
572
52.82%
1,083
Lincoln
8,672
73.81%
2,835
24.13%
242
2.06%
5,837
49.68%
11,749
Madison
4,191
68.85%
1,771
29.09%
125
2.06%
2,420
39.76%
6,087
McCone
956
84.75%
155
13.74%
17
1.51%
801
71.01%
1,128
Meagher
833
75.05%
258
23.24%
19
1.71%
575
51.81%
1,110
Mineral
1,828
71.32%
686
26.77%
49
1.91%
1,142
44.55%
2,563
Missoula
26,347
36.57%
43,357
60.18%
2,342
3.25%
-17,010
-23.61%
72,046
Musselshell
2,423
84.10%
413
14.34%
45
1.56%
2,010
69.76%
2,881
Park
6,025
51.79%
5,280
45.39%
328
2.82%
745
6.40%
11,633
Petroleum
298
85.63%
39
11.21%
11
3.16%
259
74.42%
348
Phillips
1,936
81.28%
416
17.46%
30
1.26%
1,520
63.82%
2,382
Pondera
2,031
67.81%
903
30.15%
61
2.04%
1,128
37.66%
2,995
Powder River
970
85.39%
154
13.56%
12
1.05%
816
71.83%
1,136
Powell
2,355
74.08%
752
23.66%
72
2.26%
1,603
50.42%
3,179
Prairie
603
81.05%
126
16.94%
15
2.01%
477
64.11%
744
Ravalli
19,114
66.78%
8,763
30.62%
745
2.60%
10,351
36.16%
28,622
Richland
4,800
82.79%
875
15.09%
123
2.12%
3,925
67.70%
5,798
Roosevelt
1,996
49.69%
1,910
47.55%
111
2.76%
86
2.14%
4,017
Rosebud
2,486
65.70%
1,199
31.69%
99
2.61%
1,287
34.01%
3,784
Sanders
5,660
74.25%
1,820
23.88%
143
1.87%
3,840
50.37%
7,623
Sheridan
1,403
69.11%
574
28.28%
53
2.61%
829
40.83%
2,030
Silver Bow
7,745
41.21%
10,392
55.29%
659
3.50%
-2,647
-14.08%
18,796
Stillwater
4,462
77.72%
1,156
20.14%
123
2.14%
3,306
57.58%
5,741
Sweet Grass
1,840
75.22%
549
22.44%
57
2.34%
1,291
52.78%
2,446
Teton
2,608
70.89%
1,007
27.37%
64
1.74%
1,601
43.52%
3,679
Toole
1,596
75.32%
467
22.04%
56
2.64%
1,129
53.28%
2,119
Treasure
373
81.09%
78
16.96%
9
1.95%
295
64.13%
460
Valley
3,135
73.57%
1,030
24.17%
96
2.26%
2,105
49.40%
4,261
Wheatland
823
77.06%
225
21.07%
20
1.87%
598
55.99%
1,068
Wibaux
516
86.29%
77
12.88%
5
0.83%
439
73.41%
598
Yellowstone
50,772
60.22%
30,679
36.39%
2,855
3.39%
20,093
23.83%
84,306
Totals
343,602
56.74%
244,786
40.42%
17,182
2.84%
98,816
16.32%
605,570
Swing by county
Democratic — +7.5–10%
Democratic — +5–7.5%
Democratic — +2.5–5%
Democratic — +0–2.5%
Republican — +0–2.5%
Republican — +2.5–5%
Republican — +5–7.5%
Republican — +7.5–10%
Trend relative to the state by county
Democratic — +7.5–10%
Democratic — +5–7.5%
Democratic — +2.5–5%
Democratic — +0–2.5%
Republican — +0–2.5%
Republican — +2.5–5%
Republican — +5–7.5%
Republican — +7.5–10%
County flips
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.
Analysis
Montana, a sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West , has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000 , 2004 , 2012 , and 2016 . Since 1964 , it has voted Democratic only in 1992 , and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976 , 1988 ,[ 51] 1996 , and 2008 . Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.
Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country , southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell ), Ravalli County , Cascade County (Great Falls ), and Yellowstone County (Billings ), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead , Madison , and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland , Dawson , and Valley in the Missouri River Country.
However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County , the state's third-largest county and home to the University of Montana , and winning a majority in Gallatin County , the state's second-largest county and home to Montana State University . Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012 , when it voted for Romney . He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County , the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena ; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956 , and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native American Glacier County ; and furthered his margins in the city of Whitefish , located in heavily-Republican Flathead County .[ 52]
Biden flipped the swing county of Blaine ; Trump flipped no counties.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press , 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands ; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[ 53]
In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails , won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race ,[ 54] Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race ,[ 54] Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race .[ 54] Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[ 55] [ 56]
Edison exit polls
2020 presidential election in Montana by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[ 57] [ 58]
Demographic subgroup
Biden
Trump
% of
total vote
Total vote
40.55
56.92
100
Ideology
Liberals
88
8
17
Moderates
64
34
36
Conservatives
7
91
47
Party
Democrats
96
3
22
Republicans
6
92
37
Independents
40
55
41
Gender
Men
33
63
50
Women
47
52
50
Race/ethnicity
White
39
58
88
Non-white
45
50
12
Age
18–24 years old
36
57
10
25–29 years old
25
64
9
30–39 years old
48
50
15
40–49 years old
28
69
15
50–64 years old
46
54
25
65 and older
44
55
25
Sexual orientation
LGBT
–
–
8
Not LGBT
38
60
92
Education
High school or less
32
65
26
Some college education
38
58
34
Associate degree
31
66
10
Bachelor's degree
45
54
18
Postgraduate degree
60
39
12
Region
Northern Rockies
37
61
17
Central Rockies
54
41
21
Southern Rockies
44
54
24
Northern Plains
37
60
18
Southern Plains
25
73
20
Area type
Urban
47
50
24
Suburban
–
–
5
Rural
38
59
70
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago
16
89
44
Worse than four years ago
–
–
16
About the same
61
37
39
See also
Notes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
^ "Don't recall" with 1%
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
^ a b c Includes "Refused"
^ Standard VI response
^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
^ "Someone else" with 2%
^ Hawkins (G) with 0%
^ Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
^ "Refused" with 0%
^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ "Someone else" with 5%
^ Listed as "other/not sure"
^ "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%
Partisan clients
^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
^ The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
References
^ "Montana Voter Turnout" . Montana SoS . Retrieved February 7, 2024 .^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" The Independent Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019 . ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes" . National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019 .^ "Montana Republican Delegation 2020" . The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020 .^ "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF) . Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020 .^ "Delegate Tracker" . interactives.ap.org . Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020 .^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF) . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections" . insideelections.com . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President" . crystalball.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "2020 Election Forecast" . Politico . 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Retrieved August 6, 2020 .^ "2020 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020 .^ "Montana 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin" . 270toWin.com .^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Montana : President: general election Polls" . FiveThirtyEight . ^ "Final Public Polling — Election 2020" . Change Research . November 3, 2020.^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference" . www.tableau.com .^ "Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care" (PDF) .^ "Montana State University Billings" (PDF) .^ "Siena College/NYT Upshot" (PDF) .^ Georgiou, Maritsa (October 22, 2020). "NBC Montana/Strategies 360 poll shows extremely tight Montana races" . KECI . ^ "RMG Research/PoliticalIQ" . Archived from the original on October 25, 2020. Retrieved October 24, 2020 .^ "Montana Senate Tight As Can Be" . Public Policy Polling . 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